German Elections Expected Policy Changes The German Election will take place on September 24, or in less than 2 months. Many or most observers focus on the high likelihood of Merkel being ‘reelected’ Chancellor and assume that policies will continue unchanged. In Germany, however, much relies on the make-up for the ruling coalition and as […]
German Election Update, CDU advances, FDP strong
German Election Update Stay the Course The German Election is in less than two months. Traditional forecasts, such as polls and betting markets, have been fairly stable over the last month and continue to point to the CDU/CSU winning the election and the SPD losing ground in comparison to its current position. Social Media Influence […]
SMI Update French Election: Macron becomes Front Runner
2017 French Presidential Election SMI-leader Macron takes the Betting Market lead Today is the first day that Emmanuel Macron has taken the lead in the betting markets for the 2017 French Presidential Election. This highly unlikely scenario was forecast using the Social Media Influence (SMI) index in early December, which stated that the then-third place […]
SMI Update French Election: Macron Surges, Fillon Declines
2017 French Presidential Election SMI continues to point to underdog Macron In early December, or about 6 weeks ago, we predicted using the Social Media Influence (SMI) Index that Emmanuel Macron, then a distant third place in the polls and betting markets, would surge and end up winning the French Presidential Election taking place in […]
‘Uneducated Whites’, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Whites with no College Degree Many elections have key demographics and messages that define them. For 2016, each major party has targeted a key demographic with specific messages. The Democrats have targeted women with the underlying message that it is important to finally elect the […]
Election Forecasts
Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]