Ciro Gomes continues to boom. Today is election-day in Brazil. Voting is occurring. In previous elections in other countries, metrics used for election analysis have usually stabilized by this point. Not so in Brazil. The SMI of Gomes is impressively strong, far exceeding what you would expect for such a ‘forgotten’ candidate on election-day. This […]
Brazilian Election Final Stretch
In an election filled with twists and turns, Social Media Influence (SMI) seems to have one last final surprise left in store. A late surge by Ciro Gomes in SMI, which has not been detected by any traditional metric, will likely result in Gomes significantly outperforming polls tomorrow. Though unlikely he can make up the […]
Bolsonaro leads Brazil going into Election
The first round of voting occurs on October 7th, this Sunday. Traditional metrics such as polls and betting markets have been all over the place over the last few months. A variety of candidates have been pushed into front-runner status by these traditional metrics — Lula, Haddad, and Alckmin occupied consensus leadership at one point. […]
SMI: Ciro Gomes Surges in Brazil
Brazil’s first round of voting takes place on October 7th. Within a month of election-day, there is still considerable turbulence and volatility. Since July 2017, or over a year ago, SMI has highlighted Bolsonaro as the front-runner. A series of candidates have, from time to time, challenged his SMI leadership but all have fallen after […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Polls
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Comparing SMI and Polls Using the most recent poll data from IPESPE, we can see how poll figures and SMI ratings match up. Exhibit 1: Poll Data and SMI […]
SMI and Brazil’s Election: late 2017 to mid-2018
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – late 2017 to mid-2018 One of the major takeaways has been the consistent strength of Bolsonaro during 2017 and 2018. His SMI, since late August […]
SMI and Brazil’s Election: early 2017 to mid-2017
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – early 2017 to mid-2017 In July 2017, SMI forecasted two candidates as standing out of the fairly large pool of potential candidates. The first was […]
Brazil: Bolsonaro vs ‘Establishment’
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) “Establishment Politicians” Ironically, though the general sentiment is anti-establishment, this election cycle is dominated by establishment candidates. Most of the principal candidates have been on the Brazilian political scene for […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Prediction Markets
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Betting / Prediction Markets In addition to polls, many analysts follow prediction or betting markets. These markets offer participants the opportunity to bet on outcomes of different events, including elections. […]
2018 Brazilian Election: Bolsonaro leads for ~ year
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Brazil General Election 2018 In July 2017, Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasted that the then-outlier, Jair Bolsonaro, would end up winning Brazil’s presidential election. Assuming a Bolsonaro victory in the […]
- « Previous Page
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- …
- 11
- Next Page »