German Election There are two standout candidates in terms of SMI relative to poll figures in the German 2017 Election – Christian Lindner (FDP) and Alice Weidel (AfD). The extent to which the interest in these candidates can translate into votes will determine much of the balance in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house. US and […]
German Election: SMI points to Right-Leaning Parties
German Election Election day, September 24th, is rapidly approaching. The polls and betting markets are fairly stable and clearly indicate that Merkel will win her fourth term. Social Media Influence (SMI) indicates this will likely be the case, but SMI ratings have been shifting unexpectedly – hence the reason for this update. Unlike in US, […]
German Election, Expected Policy Changes
German Elections Expected Policy Changes The German Election will take place on September 24, or in less than 2 months. Many or most observers focus on the high likelihood of Merkel being ‘reelected’ Chancellor and assume that policies will continue unchanged. In Germany, however, much relies on the make-up for the ruling coalition and as […]
German Election Update, CDU advances, FDP strong
German Election Update Stay the Course The German Election is in less than two months. Traditional forecasts, such as polls and betting markets, have been fairly stable over the last month and continue to point to the CDU/CSU winning the election and the SPD losing ground in comparison to its current position. Social Media Influence […]
German Election: FDP gaining attention
German Election Update Last month’s post on the German Election showed that Social Media Influence (SMI) was pointing to the FDP outperforming their rather meager poll and betting market figures. The implication was that Germany would shift to the right with FDP likely entering into a ruling coalition with Merkel’s CDU/CSU. At the time of […]
SMI and UK’s Labour Late Surge
UK Election The 2017 UK General Election will be held tomorrow, the 8th of June. Most assumed that it would be a relatively easy victory for the Conservative Party of Prime Minister May. In fact, it has only been in about the last two weeks since alarm bells went off as an increasing number of […]
German Elections: FDP to Outperform
Social Media Influence Establishment Parties to lose ground to FDP Germany holds its next general federal election on September 24, 2017, which will elect members of the Bundestag, or Germany’s lower house. As a single party normally does not get a majority, post-election coalition talks are held to form a coalition […]
ZettaCap: European Assets to Outperform
European Flow of Funds Pouring into Europe In March, ZettaCap published a report forecasting impending outperformance for European assets mostly due to the expected underperformance of populists in 2017 European elections, based on Social Media Influence (‘SMI’) forecasts. Since the report’s publication, there has been a marked uptick in flow of funds to and a […]
SMI Outperforms Polls in French Election
French Presidential Election SMI has lowest Forecasting Error Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen with 66.1% versus 33.9% of the popular vote, respectively. Social Media Influence (SMI) was the most accurate known forecasting method with a forecasting error of 2.7% in comparison to an average forecasting error of 4.1% for […]
Final Forecast French Presidential Election
2017 French Election Macron Victory, with slight outperformance On the eve of the second round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election, the SMI continues to point to Emmanuel Macron as the winner. The consensus call is that Macron will in fact win tomorrow. As the SMI forecast is in-line […]
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