Kevin Coogan

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Clinton Boost, Social Desirability Bias

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Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Clinton Affirming:  Benefiting from Bias Normally, Social Desirability Bias is associated with a negative bias – people claiming not to support something when they actually do or people claiming to not do something when they actually do.  But, topics or people can also benefit.  This […]

Congress Approval Rating, Social Desirability Bias

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Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Republican Shaming:  Congress Approval Rating The idea of individuals hiding their true voting intentions when responding in polls seems to have come to the forefront with Trump’s candidacy.  In reality, however, similar things have occurred for the Republican Party before Trump even announced his candidacy.  […]

Clinton vs Trump, Social Desirability Bias

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Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Trump Shaming:  Clinton vs Trump head-to-head In 2016, Trump shaming is real and Clinton has superficially benefited.  Her position is seen as being stronger than it actually is due to the fact that many Trump supporters have been closeted and many demographic groups feel social […]

Obama Approval Rating, Social Desirability Bias

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Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Trump Shaming:  Obama Approval Rating Social Desirability Bias influences politics in many ways.  Though ‘Trump Shaming’ has received the most attention, this issue as it relates to politics is much larger.  It directly impacts support for the different political parties, policies, and politicians to a […]

Summary: Social Desirability Bias, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Social Desirability Bias / Overview:  Summarized Findings The conditions are ripe for people to feel social pressure to vote a certain socially desirable way.  Americans do not appear to be actually changing who they vote for, simply changing who they say they will vote for when in front of other […]

Landslide Expectations, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Minority Expectations of Victory Opinion leaders in the media and even political analysis firms seem to agree that a Clinton victory is expected.  But, this understanding goes well beyond opinion leaders and into the general populace.  It is arguable if this is a positive or a […]

Female Vote, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Female Vote Much of the 2016 election will be determined by the extent to which gender plays a significant role or not in voter turnout and party preference. As we will see, women tend to vote Democrat and men tend to vote Republican.  A significant change […]

Youth Vote, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Youth Vote The youth vote has been a consistent voting block for the Democrats.  Especially in the last two presidential elections, the youth vote clearly helped the Democrats to victory.  As part of the ‘Coalition’ that elected Obama, many expect the youth vote to support Clinton […]

Hispanic Community, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Hispanic Community The Hispanic community has proven to be one of the Democrat’s most valued assets.   In comparison to the African-American community, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat at slightly lower rates but at approximately 70% they still produce an overwhelming advantage for Democrats.  Hispanic turnout […]

LGBT Community, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  LGBT Community The LGBT community is more difficult to forecast as there is less data.  My impression is that LGBT voters would have been most inclined to vote Democrat before the legalization of same-sex marriage which likely explains Obama’s relatively strong figures with this group.  However, […]