Post-Election Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes. Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes. This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]
‘Extremely Likely to Vote’ uncovers Hidden-Trump-Supporter
Election 2016 Hidden Trump Supporters might be hiding in plain sight From the Democrat side, anyone who questions polls is a bit off (except if an ‘outlier poll’ shows Trump up, then it is ok to disregard it, so it goes both ways). Even on Fox News, which is traditionally very conservative, many eyes have rolled […]
Election Forecasts
Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]
CNN Enthusiasm Poll
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: CNN Enthusiasm Poll The CNN / ORC International poll tracked the level of enthusiasm during US presidential election cycles starting from 2003. The wording of the question is: “How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year’s election– extremely enthusiastic, […]
Landslide Expectations, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Minority Expectations of Victory Opinion leaders in the media and even political analysis firms seem to agree that a Clinton victory is expected. But, this understanding goes well beyond opinion leaders and into the general populace. It is arguable if this is a positive or a […]
Female Vote, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Female Vote Much of the 2016 election will be determined by the extent to which gender plays a significant role or not in voter turnout and party preference. As we will see, women tend to vote Democrat and men tend to vote Republican. A significant change […]
Hispanic Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Hispanic Community The Hispanic community has proven to be one of the Democrat’s most valued assets. In comparison to the African-American community, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat at slightly lower rates but at approximately 70% they still produce an overwhelming advantage for Democrats. Hispanic turnout […]
Summary: Identity Politics
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Summary ‘Identity Politics’ appears to have taken firm root in America. I do not like the idea or condone it. Frankly, I think the laser like focus on demographics in America actually weakens the democracy and accentuates other problems. However, for analysis purposes, we cannot ignore […]
Primary Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Primary Turnout Of course primary turnout matters! This is not the easiest variable to analyze as conditions of each election cycle can seriously modify the validity of primary turnout analysis – but if you make sure to take changes into account, then primary turnout is […]
Age Cohort Enthusiasm
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Age Cohort Enthusiasm Breakdown Each candidate appears to be leading within distinct age cohorts. Generally, polls in 2016 tend to show younger age groups leaning Democrat and older age groups leaning Republican. Certainly, this trend is not that new considering the strong youth vote was […]