Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Google Search Trends can Predict Turnout and Election Winner People mostly get their information from search. If they are interested in something they tend to open a browser and search for the topic at hand. Google, by most accounts, controls over 60% of search in […]
Voter Attitudes = Record Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout: Voter Attitudes Data Polls sometimes ask indirect questions to determine which respondents are Likely Voters. These questions often relate to their attitudes regarding the election and voting in general. Examples include: To what extent are you following the election? Is the election interesting? Does it really matter […]
“Likely Voter” Indicators
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: “Likely Voter” Indicators that worked in 2008 and what it means for 2016 There are many stages to poll analysis. And, in each stage, an incorrect assumption can produce poor or misleading overall results. One of these stages is calculating Likely Voters. Many polls include questions […]
Summary, Forecasting Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Summary => Republicans to Benefit The election of 2016 is considerably different from previous US Presidential Elections by many metrics including those that help to forecast turnout. Furthermore, these metrics considerably point to the Republicans benefiting from the increased turnout. There are two general ways […]