Kevin Coogan

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German Election: Final SMI Forecast

September 22, 2017 by Kevin Coogan

German Election          Merkel to Win, but FDP and AfD will be biggest outpeformers Using polls as a base scenario, we compare the latest SMI forecasts.  The table below summarizes polls, SMI forecasts and the differentials between polls and SMI forecasts.   Table 1:  German Election:   Social Media Influence (SMI) Forecasts vs […]

Filed Under: Big Data, Election, Forecasts, German Election, Google Search Trends, Google Search Trends, Social Media Analysis, Social Media Influence, Wikipedia Page Views Tagged With: AfD, CDU, FDP, forecasting, German Election, Greens, Left, Lindner, Merkel, SMI, social media influence, SPD, Weidel

Accurate Election Forecast

November 9, 2016 by Kevin Coogan

Post-Election          Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes.  Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes.  This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]

Filed Under: Election, Enthusiasm to Vote, Forecasts, Fundamental Forecasting, Google Search Trends, Google Search Trends, Identity Politics, Obama Coalition, Polls, Social Desirability Bias, Social Desirability Bias, Social Media Analysis, Voter Turnout, Wikipedia Page Views Tagged With: election 2016, Enthusiasm, forecasts, Google Search Trends, Obama Coalition, Social Desirability Bias, social media analysis, turnout

Election Forecasts

October 19, 2016 by Kevin Coogan

Election 2016:          Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts.  These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts.  They […]

Filed Under: Biased Media, Election, Enthusiasm to Vote, Fundamental Forecasting, Google Search Trends, Identity Politics, Obama Coalition, Polls, Social Desirability Bias, Social Media Analysis, Voter Turnout, Wikipedia Page Views Tagged With: election 2016, Identity Politics, social media, voter turnout

Google Search Trends and Politics

October 19, 2016 by Kevin Coogan

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Google Search Trends can Predict Turnout and Election Winner People mostly get their information from search.  If they are interested in something they tend to open a browser and search for the topic at hand.  Google, by most accounts, controls over 60% of search in […]

Filed Under: Election, Enthusiasm to Vote, Google Search Trends, Uncategorized, Voter Turnout Tagged With: election 2016, Google Search Trends, voter turnout

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