The following is an excerpt from a ZettaCap report published in February 2019. ====================================================== Let’s review some of the points that suggest Michelle Obama is seriously considering a run: Autobiography – published bestselling autobiography, basic starting point for presidential hopefuls, Publishing Date – publication timing is uncannily similar to that of Barack’s book when using respective election-days […]
Accurate Election Forecast
Post-Election Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes. Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes. This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]
Election Forecasts
Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]
Female Vote, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Female Vote Much of the 2016 election will be determined by the extent to which gender plays a significant role or not in voter turnout and party preference. As we will see, women tend to vote Democrat and men tend to vote Republican. A significant change […]
Hispanic Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Hispanic Community The Hispanic community has proven to be one of the Democrat’s most valued assets. In comparison to the African-American community, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat at slightly lower rates but at approximately 70% they still produce an overwhelming advantage for Democrats. Hispanic turnout […]
African-American Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: African-American Community Clinton will most definitely receive the lion’s share of the African-American vote. But can she actually replicate the success of Obama, the country’s first African-American president, with this demographic group? Because this community has been the most loyal of any major demographic group to […]
Summary: Identity Politics
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Summary ‘Identity Politics’ appears to have taken firm root in America. I do not like the idea or condone it. Frankly, I think the laser like focus on demographics in America actually weakens the democracy and accentuates other problems. However, for analysis purposes, we cannot ignore […]
Age Cohort Enthusiasm
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Age Cohort Enthusiasm Breakdown Each candidate appears to be leading within distinct age cohorts. Generally, polls in 2016 tend to show younger age groups leaning Democrat and older age groups leaning Republican. Certainly, this trend is not that new considering the strong youth vote was […]
Fundamental Forecasts Needed
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]