Kevin Coogan

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German Election Update, CDU advances, FDP strong

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German Election Update          Stay the Course The German Election is in less than two months.  Traditional forecasts, such as polls and betting markets, have been fairly stable over the last month and continue to point to the CDU/CSU winning the election and the SPD losing ground in comparison to its current position.  Social Media Influence […]

German Election: FDP gaining attention

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German Election Update Last month’s post on the German Election showed that Social Media Influence (SMI) was pointing to the FDP outperforming their rather meager poll and betting market figures.  The implication was that Germany would shift to the right with FDP likely entering into a ruling coalition with Merkel’s CDU/CSU.  At the time of […]

German Elections: FDP to Outperform

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Social Media Influence          Establishment Parties to lose ground to FDP Germany holds its next general federal election on September 24, 2017, which will elect members of the Bundestag, or Germany’s lower house.  As a single party normally does not get a majority, post-election coalition talks are held to form a coalition […]

SMI Outperforms Polls in French Election

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French Presidential Election           SMI has lowest Forecasting Error Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen with 66.1% versus 33.9% of the popular vote, respectively.  Social Media Influence (SMI) was the most accurate known forecasting method with a forecasting error of 2.7% in comparison to an average forecasting error of 4.1% for […]

Final Forecast French Presidential Election

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2017 French Election          Macron Victory, with slight outperformance On the eve of the second round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election, the SMI continues to point to Emmanuel Macron as the winner.  The consensus call is that Macron will in fact win tomorrow.  As the SMI forecast is in-line […]

SMI: South Korean Presidential Forecast

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South Korean Presidential Election          Late Surge for Sim Sang-jung but Moon Jae-in to Win Using Social Media Influence (SMI) to forecast political races is new and innovative.  It was used successfully to make early forecasts in the 2016 US Presidential Election, where it forecasted an eventual Trump victory, and in the 2017 French […]

France: Second Round SMI Forecast

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French Election           Second Round Analysis Social Media Influence (SMI) is currently forecasting a 61% Macron and 39% Le Pen split for the second round of voting. The average of eight polls (including OpinionWay, Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Ipsos, and Harris) conducted from April 23rd (day of first round voting) to present show a split of 62% Macron […]

Review of French Election SMI Forecasts vs Actual

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French Election        First Round Results versus SMI Forecasts Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts for the first round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election compares well with actual results.  Taking the main SMI forecasts that ended up being correct: Macron will win the most votes in the first round. SMI forecasted that Macron would […]

SMI Revised Forecasts for French Election

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French Election                  First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already.  For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election.  Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]