Kevin Coogan

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Accurate Election Forecast

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Post-Election          Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes.  Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes.  This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]

Secular Divisions, not Produced in 2016

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Election 2016                      Polarized Country not Caused by Candidates A common theme throughout the 2016 election is that the candidates are very divisive and have created divisions in the country.  In fact, the country has been becoming increasingly divided over the last generation(s) and the current candidates are more akin to symptoms than causes.  On a variety […]

Final Forecast 2016 Election

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Election 2016                      Final Forecasts, Trump Victory The day before election-day, our final forecast is for Trump to win the general election by a margin slightly less than Obama’s victory over Romney in 2012, or by about 3 percentage points. This forecast is heavily weighted towards social media, on-line activity, consumption data, interest levels, anonymous polls, and […]

Google Consumer Survey, High Undecideds to help Trump

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Election 2016                      Extremely High Undecideds benefit Trump One of the most significant wild cards in the 2016 election is the high number of undecideds.  Much of the race will be decided by which side they vote for on election-day.  This post presents the size of this cohort and speculates on how it can impact the final […]

Social Media Predicts Trump Victory

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Election 2016                      Social Media Influence Index => Trump Wins The Social Media Influence (“SMI”) Index was created by ZettaCap, a company I founded that analyzes a variety of social media and on-line data for financial investment analysis.  It correctly predicted from 2015 that Trump would dominate the Republican nomination process and that Clinton would win the […]

‘Extremely Likely to Vote’ uncovers Hidden-Trump-Supporter

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Election 2016                      Hidden Trump Supporters might be hiding in plain sight From the Democrat side, anyone who questions polls is a bit off (except if an ‘outlier poll’ shows Trump up, then it is ok to disregard it, so it goes both ways).  Even on Fox News, which is traditionally very conservative, many eyes have rolled […]

Live vs Anonymous Polls, Bias Growing near Election

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Election 2016                      Polling / Is Clinton a shoe-in?  Clinton Landslide? With about three weeks to go to the general election (at the time of writing not public publishing), most have already declared Clinton the winner.  The average of FiveThirtyEight, PredictWise, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, New York Times, and Huffington Post puts the probability of a […]

Google Searches and Pres Debates, surge in interest for Trump

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Election 2016          Google Searches during Debates, advantage Trump As discussed in different posts and research, on-line activity is an excellent determination of interest level which, in the case of a political election, is a good indicator for voting intention and turnout. In the last three US Presidential Elections the candidate with the more dominant Google […]

Debate Viewership implies Record Turnout

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Election 2016         US Debate Viewership points to Record Voter Turnout One of the main determining factors, and one of the least covered variables, for the 2016 US Presidential Election is voter turnout.  In other posts, we discussed how search activity and interest levels (measured in polls) point to voter turnout that could approach or break […]

‘Uneducated Whites’, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Whites with no College Degree Many elections have key demographics and messages that define them.  For 2016, each major party has targeted a key demographic with specific messages.  The Democrats have targeted women with the underlying message that it is important to finally elect the […]