Kevin Coogan

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Summary: Social Desirability Bias, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Social Desirability Bias / Overview:  Summarized Findings The conditions are ripe for people to feel social pressure to vote a certain socially desirable way.  Americans do not appear to be actually changing who they vote for, simply changing who they say they will vote for when in front of other […]

Landslide Expectations, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Minority Expectations of Victory Opinion leaders in the media and even political analysis firms seem to agree that a Clinton victory is expected.  But, this understanding goes well beyond opinion leaders and into the general populace.  It is arguable if this is a positive or a […]

Female Vote, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Female Vote Much of the 2016 election will be determined by the extent to which gender plays a significant role or not in voter turnout and party preference. As we will see, women tend to vote Democrat and men tend to vote Republican.  A significant change […]

Youth Vote, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Youth Vote The youth vote has been a consistent voting block for the Democrats.  Especially in the last two presidential elections, the youth vote clearly helped the Democrats to victory.  As part of the ‘Coalition’ that elected Obama, many expect the youth vote to support Clinton […]

Hispanic Community, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Hispanic Community The Hispanic community has proven to be one of the Democrat’s most valued assets.   In comparison to the African-American community, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat at slightly lower rates but at approximately 70% they still produce an overwhelming advantage for Democrats.  Hispanic turnout […]

LGBT Community, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  LGBT Community The LGBT community is more difficult to forecast as there is less data.  My impression is that LGBT voters would have been most inclined to vote Democrat before the legalization of same-sex marriage which likely explains Obama’s relatively strong figures with this group.  However, […]

African-American Community, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  African-American Community Clinton will most definitely receive the lion’s share of the African-American vote.  But can she actually replicate the success of Obama, the country’s first African-American president, with this demographic group?  Because this community has been the most loyal of any major demographic group to […]

Summary: Identity Politics

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Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Summary ‘Identity Politics’ appears to have taken firm root in America.  I do not like the idea or condone it.  Frankly, I think the laser like focus on demographics in America actually weakens the democracy and accentuates other problems.  However, for analysis purposes, we cannot ignore […]

Primary Turnout

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Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Primary Turnout Of course primary turnout matters!  This is not the easiest variable to analyze as conditions of each election cycle can seriously modify the validity of primary turnout analysis – but if you make sure to take changes into account, then primary turnout is […]