According to the degree of improvement of Social Media Influence (SMI), the winner of the June 26th Democratic Debate was Julian Castro, followed by Tulsi Gabbard. In order to get some perspective, we have compared the ranking of the performance of candidates at the debate from first to tenth by SMI, on-line surveys, and search. […]
US Midterms — Summary of Forecasts
There are many forecasts for the current Midterms. In the following table, three forecasts based on single variables and 10 forecasts from forecasters are presented. Table 1: List of Forecasts of 2018 US Midterms, House of Representatives, by number of seats Source Type Democrats Republicans Majority 538.com (1) Forecaster 234 201 D + 16 […]
Bolsonaro to Win Brazil’s Presidency
The second round of the Brazilian Presidential Election is tomorrow. Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts Bolsonaro to defeat Haddad, 59.4% to 40.6% respectively. SMI has been consistently positive on Bolsonaro since July 2017. It is the only known quantitative indicator to maintain Bolsonaro as the front-runner throughout an extremely turbulent campaign. As polls and especially […]
Could Ciro Gomes take Second Place?
Ciro Gomes continues to boom. Today is election-day in Brazil. Voting is occurring. In previous elections in other countries, metrics used for election analysis have usually stabilized by this point. Not so in Brazil. The SMI of Gomes is impressively strong, far exceeding what you would expect for such a ‘forgotten’ candidate on election-day. This […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Polls
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Comparing SMI and Polls Using the most recent poll data from IPESPE, we can see how poll figures and SMI ratings match up. Exhibit 1: Poll Data and SMI […]
SMI and Brazil’s Election: late 2017 to mid-2018
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – late 2017 to mid-2018 One of the major takeaways has been the consistent strength of Bolsonaro during 2017 and 2018. His SMI, since late August […]
SMI and Brazil’s Election: early 2017 to mid-2017
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – early 2017 to mid-2017 In July 2017, SMI forecasted two candidates as standing out of the fairly large pool of potential candidates. The first was […]
Brazil: Bolsonaro vs ‘Establishment’
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) “Establishment Politicians” Ironically, though the general sentiment is anti-establishment, this election cycle is dominated by establishment candidates. Most of the principal candidates have been on the Brazilian political scene for […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Prediction Markets
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Betting / Prediction Markets In addition to polls, many analysts follow prediction or betting markets. These markets offer participants the opportunity to bet on outcomes of different events, including elections. […]
2018 Brazilian Election: Bolsonaro leads for ~ year
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Brazil General Election 2018 In July 2017, Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasted that the then-outlier, Jair Bolsonaro, would end up winning Brazil’s presidential election. Assuming a Bolsonaro victory in the […]
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