Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]
Clinton vs Trump, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Trump Shaming: Clinton vs Trump head-to-head In 2016, Trump shaming is real and Clinton has superficially benefited. Her position is seen as being stronger than it actually is due to the fact that many Trump supporters have been closeted and many demographic groups feel social […]
Voter Attitudes = Record Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout: Voter Attitudes Data Polls sometimes ask indirect questions to determine which respondents are Likely Voters. These questions often relate to their attitudes regarding the election and voting in general. Examples include: To what extent are you following the election? Is the election interesting? Does it really matter […]
“Likely Voter” Indicators
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: “Likely Voter” Indicators that worked in 2008 and what it means for 2016 There are many stages to poll analysis. And, in each stage, an incorrect assumption can produce poor or misleading overall results. One of these stages is calculating Likely Voters. Many polls include questions […]
Counter Arguments
Election 2016 Intro: Counter Arguments and Potential Weaknesses As a general disclaimer, some weaknesses with the general analysis should be highlighted: 1. Media Bias and Social Desirability Bias – these go hand-in-hand when it comes to national political campaigns so if you disregard an inherent media bias that is weighted against […]