Brazil’s first round of voting takes place on October 7th. Within a month of election-day, there is still considerable turbulence and volatility. Since July 2017, or over a year ago, SMI has highlighted Bolsonaro as the front-runner. A series of candidates have, from time to time, challenged his SMI leadership but all have fallen after […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Polls
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Comparing SMI and Polls Using the most recent poll data from IPESPE, we can see how poll figures and SMI ratings match up. Exhibit 1: Poll Data and SMI […]
SMI and Brazil’s Election: late 2017 to mid-2018
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – late 2017 to mid-2018 One of the major takeaways has been the consistent strength of Bolsonaro during 2017 and 2018. His SMI, since late August […]
SMI and Brazil’s Election: early 2017 to mid-2017
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – early 2017 to mid-2017 In July 2017, SMI forecasted two candidates as standing out of the fairly large pool of potential candidates. The first was […]
Brazil: Bolsonaro vs ‘Establishment’
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) “Establishment Politicians” Ironically, though the general sentiment is anti-establishment, this election cycle is dominated by establishment candidates. Most of the principal candidates have been on the Brazilian political scene for […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Prediction Markets
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Betting / Prediction Markets In addition to polls, many analysts follow prediction or betting markets. These markets offer participants the opportunity to bet on outcomes of different events, including elections. […]
2018 Brazilian Election: Bolsonaro leads for ~ year
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Brazil General Election 2018 In July 2017, Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasted that the then-outlier, Jair Bolsonaro, would end up winning Brazil’s presidential election. Assuming a Bolsonaro victory in the […]
SMI: Bolsonaro to win Brazilian Election
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Summary Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and […]
SMI forecasts Italian Election, Euro to pause
We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls. Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets. We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation. The following excerpt is taken […]
SMI: Moore(R) to Win AL Senate Race
Alabama Senate Race A special election will be held in Alabama to fill the vacant seat on December 12, 2017. Alabama is seen as a key election as it will serve as a litmus test for the broader 2018 Senate races. If a traditionally Republican state can elect a Democratic senator, the Senate would be seen […]