Kevin Coogan

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Social Media: Emmanuel Macron France’s Next President

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2017 French Presidential Election         SMI points towards Macron Judging from the Social Media Influence (SMI) index, Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon will place first and second, respectively, in the first round of voting which will take place on April 23, 2017 qualifying them to pass on to the second round or head-to-head run-off on May […]

Accurate Election Forecast

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Post-Election          Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes.  Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes.  This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]

Social Media Predicts Trump Victory

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Election 2016                      Social Media Influence Index => Trump Wins The Social Media Influence (“SMI”) Index was created by ZettaCap, a company I founded that analyzes a variety of social media and on-line data for financial investment analysis.  It correctly predicted from 2015 that Trump would dominate the Republican nomination process and that Clinton would win the […]

Google Searches and Pres Debates, surge in interest for Trump

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Election 2016          Google Searches during Debates, advantage Trump As discussed in different posts and research, on-line activity is an excellent determination of interest level which, in the case of a political election, is a good indicator for voting intention and turnout. In the last three US Presidential Elections the candidate with the more dominant Google […]

Election Forecasts

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Election 2016:          Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts.  These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts.  They […]

Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary

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Election 2016           Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary Election analysis concerning the 2016 US Presidential race is truly awful. This series of posts will discuss this topic and of course how to improve upon it.  There are many issues and problems with the current US presidential analysis. Highlighting some of […]

Counter Arguments

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Election 2016          Intro: Counter Arguments and Potential Weaknesses As a general disclaimer, some weaknesses with the general analysis should be highlighted:   1. Media Bias and Social Desirability Bias – these go hand-in-hand when it comes to national political campaigns so if you disregard an inherent media bias that is weighted against […]