(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – late 2017 to mid-2018 One of the major takeaways has been the consistent strength of Bolsonaro during 2017 and 2018. His SMI, since late August […]
SMI and Brazil’s Election: early 2017 to mid-2017
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – early 2017 to mid-2017 In July 2017, SMI forecasted two candidates as standing out of the fairly large pool of potential candidates. The first was […]
Brazil: Bolsonaro vs ‘Establishment’
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) “Establishment Politicians” Ironically, though the general sentiment is anti-establishment, this election cycle is dominated by establishment candidates. Most of the principal candidates have been on the Brazilian political scene for […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Prediction Markets
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Betting / Prediction Markets In addition to polls, many analysts follow prediction or betting markets. These markets offer participants the opportunity to bet on outcomes of different events, including elections. […]
2018 Brazilian Election: Bolsonaro leads for ~ year
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Brazil General Election 2018 In July 2017, Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasted that the then-outlier, Jair Bolsonaro, would end up winning Brazil’s presidential election. Assuming a Bolsonaro victory in the […]
SMI: Bolsonaro to win Brazilian Election
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Summary Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and […]
Bitcoin Forecasts
Continuing Bear Market for Crypto-Assets In February 2018, ZettaCap published a 33-page report entitled Bitcoin Bubble Bursts, Historical Investment Bubbles Provide Roadmap. It stated, correctly, that bitcoin was in a financial bubble that had recently burst. At the time such a forecast was not a consensus view with many still discussing bitcoin increasing 10-fold within the foreseeable future. In […]
Euro Forecast and Italian Election
Accurate Forecasts of Italian Election and Euro Prior to Italy’s General Election in March 2018, we made an out-of-consensus forecast that Italy’s smaller right-leaning parties would outperform polls, upsetting the political order in Italy and Europe. We predicted that the Euro’s appreciation would essentially stop due to the unexpected shift in Italian politics. The election forecast […]
SMI forecasts Italian Election, Euro to pause
We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls. Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets. We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation. The following excerpt is taken […]
Using Alt Data to Forecast Strong Results for FIT
Social Media Product Analysis for Earnings Surprises It has historically been extremely difficult for analysts and investors to bring a significant edge to earnings releases. After all, there are regulations around preventing investors from gaining any significant advantage from management. So, how can an investor gain such an edge? The analysis of alternative data can […]