European Flow of Funds Pouring into Europe In March, ZettaCap published a report forecasting impending outperformance for European assets mostly due to the expected underperformance of populists in 2017 European elections, based on Social Media Influence (‘SMI’) forecasts. Since the report’s publication, there has been a marked uptick in flow of funds to and a […]
SMI Outperforms Polls in French Election
French Presidential Election SMI has lowest Forecasting Error Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen with 66.1% versus 33.9% of the popular vote, respectively. Social Media Influence (SMI) was the most accurate known forecasting method with a forecasting error of 2.7% in comparison to an average forecasting error of 4.1% for […]
Final Forecast French Presidential Election
2017 French Election Macron Victory, with slight outperformance On the eve of the second round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election, the SMI continues to point to Emmanuel Macron as the winner. The consensus call is that Macron will in fact win tomorrow. As the SMI forecast is in-line […]
France: Second Round SMI Forecast
French Election Second Round Analysis Social Media Influence (SMI) is currently forecasting a 61% Macron and 39% Le Pen split for the second round of voting. The average of eight polls (including OpinionWay, Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Ipsos, and Harris) conducted from April 23rd (day of first round voting) to present show a split of 62% Macron […]
Review of French Election SMI Forecasts vs Actual
French Election First Round Results versus SMI Forecasts Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts for the first round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election compares well with actual results. Taking the main SMI forecasts that ended up being correct: Macron will win the most votes in the first round. SMI forecasted that Macron would […]
SMI Revised Forecasts for French Election
French Election First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already. For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election. Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]
French Election: SMI Shows Melenchon Strength
French Presidential Election Melenchon – Dark Horse Candidate The first round of voting will take place within two weeks, on April 23rd. Much of the campaign has developed along the lines that we laid out in our early December SMI forecast. However, there have recently been some significant shifts which could shake things up going […]
Social Media Influence (SMI) Election Track-Record
SMI Track-Record Making Correct Forecasts in Difficult Times Analyzing social media and/or on-line activity to measure influence and intent is still relatively new. It has been used with success in finance and product releases, but its application to elections was unheard of until 2015. Since that time, a number of out-of-consensus […]
SMI continues to forecast Macron in France
French Election Macron, the next French President On December 12, 2016, we forecasted that Emmanuel Macron would be elected the next French President. Since that time, his position as measured by Social Media Influence (SMI) has improved and the forecast remains intact. The single largest change with this update is that Le Pen has moved […]
SMI Update French Election: Macron becomes Front Runner
2017 French Presidential Election SMI-leader Macron takes the Betting Market lead Today is the first day that Emmanuel Macron has taken the lead in the betting markets for the 2017 French Presidential Election. This highly unlikely scenario was forecast using the Social Media Influence (SMI) index in early December, which stated that the then-third place […]