(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Comparing SMI and Polls Using the most recent poll data from IPESPE, we can see how poll figures and SMI ratings match up. Exhibit 1: Poll Data and SMI […]
2018 Brazilian Election: Bolsonaro leads for ~ year
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Brazil General Election 2018 In July 2017, Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasted that the then-outlier, Jair Bolsonaro, would end up winning Brazil’s presidential election. Assuming a Bolsonaro victory in the […]
SMI: Bolsonaro to win Brazilian Election
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Summary Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and […]
Bitcoin Forecasts
Continuing Bear Market for Crypto-Assets In February 2018, ZettaCap published a 33-page report entitled Bitcoin Bubble Bursts, Historical Investment Bubbles Provide Roadmap. It stated, correctly, that bitcoin was in a financial bubble that had recently burst. At the time such a forecast was not a consensus view with many still discussing bitcoin increasing 10-fold within the foreseeable future. In […]
Euro Forecast and Italian Election
Accurate Forecasts of Italian Election and Euro Prior to Italy’s General Election in March 2018, we made an out-of-consensus forecast that Italy’s smaller right-leaning parties would outperform polls, upsetting the political order in Italy and Europe. We predicted that the Euro’s appreciation would essentially stop due to the unexpected shift in Italian politics. The election forecast […]
SMI forecasts Italian Election, Euro to pause
We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls. Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets. We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation. The following excerpt is taken […]
Using Alt Data to Forecast Strong Results for FIT
Social Media Product Analysis for Earnings Surprises It has historically been extremely difficult for analysts and investors to bring a significant edge to earnings releases. After all, there are regulations around preventing investors from gaining any significant advantage from management. So, how can an investor gain such an edge? The analysis of alternative data can […]
German Election Update, CDU advances, FDP strong
German Election Update Stay the Course The German Election is in less than two months. Traditional forecasts, such as polls and betting markets, have been fairly stable over the last month and continue to point to the CDU/CSU winning the election and the SPD losing ground in comparison to its current position. Social Media Influence […]
ZettaCap: European Assets to Outperform
European Flow of Funds Pouring into Europe In March, ZettaCap published a report forecasting impending outperformance for European assets mostly due to the expected underperformance of populists in 2017 European elections, based on Social Media Influence (‘SMI’) forecasts. Since the report’s publication, there has been a marked uptick in flow of funds to and a […]
Is boring data big data?
The term big data is still being defined. It is unclear which data sources will eventually be included under the umbrella term of big data and which will not quite make it. As much as people do not like the term, which has become very clear with the negative coverage that it has received, I […]