(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Comparing SMI and Polls Using the most recent poll data from IPESPE, we can see how poll figures and SMI ratings match up. Exhibit 1: Poll Data and SMI […]
SMI and Brazil’s Election: late 2017 to mid-2018
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – late 2017 to mid-2018 One of the major takeaways has been the consistent strength of Bolsonaro during 2017 and 2018. His SMI, since late August […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Prediction Markets
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Betting / Prediction Markets In addition to polls, many analysts follow prediction or betting markets. These markets offer participants the opportunity to bet on outcomes of different events, including elections. […]
2018 Brazilian Election: Bolsonaro leads for ~ year
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Brazil General Election 2018 In July 2017, Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasted that the then-outlier, Jair Bolsonaro, would end up winning Brazil’s presidential election. Assuming a Bolsonaro victory in the […]
SMI: Bolsonaro to win Brazilian Election
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Summary Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and […]
SMI forecasts Italian Election, Euro to pause
We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls. Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets. We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation. The following excerpt is taken […]
SMI: South Korean Presidential Forecast
South Korean Presidential Election Late Surge for Sim Sang-jung but Moon Jae-in to Win Using Social Media Influence (SMI) to forecast political races is new and innovative. It was used successfully to make early forecasts in the 2016 US Presidential Election, where it forecasted an eventual Trump victory, and in the 2017 French […]
Review of French Election SMI Forecasts vs Actual
French Election First Round Results versus SMI Forecasts Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts for the first round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election compares well with actual results. Taking the main SMI forecasts that ended up being correct: Macron will win the most votes in the first round. SMI forecasted that Macron would […]
SMI Revised Forecasts for French Election
French Election First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already. For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election. Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]
Accurate Election Forecast
Post-Election Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes. Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes. This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]