German Election Update Last month’s post on the German Election showed that Social Media Influence (SMI) was pointing to the FDP outperforming their rather meager poll and betting market figures. The implication was that Germany would shift to the right with FDP likely entering into a ruling coalition with Merkel’s CDU/CSU. At the time of […]
SMI and UK’s Labour Late Surge
UK Election The 2017 UK General Election will be held tomorrow, the 8th of June. Most assumed that it would be a relatively easy victory for the Conservative Party of Prime Minister May. In fact, it has only been in about the last two weeks since alarm bells went off as an increasing number of […]
German Elections: FDP to Outperform
Social Media Influence Establishment Parties to lose ground to FDP Germany holds its next general federal election on September 24, 2017, which will elect members of the Bundestag, or Germany’s lower house. As a single party normally does not get a majority, post-election coalition talks are held to form a coalition […]
ZettaCap: European Assets to Outperform
European Flow of Funds Pouring into Europe In March, ZettaCap published a report forecasting impending outperformance for European assets mostly due to the expected underperformance of populists in 2017 European elections, based on Social Media Influence (‘SMI’) forecasts. Since the report’s publication, there has been a marked uptick in flow of funds to and a […]
SMI Outperforms Polls in French Election
French Presidential Election SMI has lowest Forecasting Error Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen with 66.1% versus 33.9% of the popular vote, respectively. Social Media Influence (SMI) was the most accurate known forecasting method with a forecasting error of 2.7% in comparison to an average forecasting error of 4.1% for […]
Final Forecast French Presidential Election
2017 French Election Macron Victory, with slight outperformance On the eve of the second round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election, the SMI continues to point to Emmanuel Macron as the winner. The consensus call is that Macron will in fact win tomorrow. As the SMI forecast is in-line […]
SMI: South Korean Presidential Forecast
South Korean Presidential Election Late Surge for Sim Sang-jung but Moon Jae-in to Win Using Social Media Influence (SMI) to forecast political races is new and innovative. It was used successfully to make early forecasts in the 2016 US Presidential Election, where it forecasted an eventual Trump victory, and in the 2017 French […]