French Election Second Round Analysis
Social Media Influence (SMI) is currently forecasting a 61% Macron and 39% Le Pen split for the second round of voting.
The average of eight polls (including OpinionWay, Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Ipsos, and Harris) conducted from April 23rd (day of first round voting) to present show a split of 62% Macron and 38% Le Pen.
SMI and polls show an extremely similar outlook. As such, it appears highly unlikely, barring an extraordinary exogenous event, that Le Pen will be able to upset Macron, especially given the tight time frame as second round voting is schedule for May 7th. Additionally, it should be noted that it is not that common for SMI and polls to agree to such an extent during the campaign which provides greater confidence in the forecast.
