Brazil’s first round of voting takes place on October 7th.  Within a month of election-day, there is still considerable turbulence and volatility.

Since July 2017, or over a year ago, SMI has highlighted Bolsonaro as the front-runner.  A series of candidates have, from time to time, challenged his SMI leadership but all have fallen after a short period of time.  Ciro Gomes is the latest candidate to test his lead.

The electoral environment and consequently the environment on social media regarding the election has shifted.  The PT lost considerable momentum after the Supreme Electoral Court ruled against Lula being able to run.  Although such a ruling was ‘expected’, it was also ‘expected’ by the market that Haddad, the PT’s stand-in candidate, would receive a considerable boost post-ruling.  This, however, has not happened and his SMI has stagnated.

Ciro Gomes, in contrast, has surged.  His SMI post-ruling has been consistently strong and he appears to have emerged as the left’s primary candidate.

The attack on Bolsonaro initially helped his SMI.  In the last day, however, there have been the first signs of his SMI weakening and it looks like his SMI will settle back down to pre-attack levels.  It still qualifies him for a top-two place in the first round of voting but it no longer appears the initial sympathy he received post-attack will stick.

With Bolsonaro returning to more-or-less pre-attack SMI and with Ciro Gomes surging, it looks like these two candidates will go to the second round run-off election.