Alabama Senate Race

A special election will be held in Alabama to fill the vacant seat on December 12, 2017.  Alabama is seen as a key election as it will serve as a litmus test for the broader 2018 Senate races.  If a traditionally Republican state can elect a Democratic senator, the Senate would be seen as in-play in 2018.

Accusations

Moore (R) has been accused by various women of improper sexual advances when they were teenagers.  These recent revelations appear to have thrown the race into doubt.  Polls and betting markets have become volatile while various Republican senators have called for him to step aside.

Traditional Indicators

Betting markets have Jones (D) at 49% and Moore (R) at 42% probability of winning the election.  Polls are more mixed with the four most recent polls (FOX 10/Strategy Research, Emerson, JMC Analytics, Opinion Savvy) from the last week showing one favoring Jones, one tie, and two favoring Moore.

According to traditional indicators, it is extremely difficult to forecast a winner as betting markets and polls are volatile and contradictory.

Social Media Influence (SMI)

SMI has been unusually consistent in pointing towards Moore winning the election.  Even during the last week, as many of the nation’s top Republican senators publically called on Moore to exit the race, his SMI remained strong and more importantly stronger than that of his opponent.

According to SMI, the accusations and subsequent requests for Moore to step aside might have backfired in the sense that his SMI did not plummet as his political opponents (apparently) had expected but remained strong.

SMI Trackrecord

SMI is a new form of analysis so take care when using such forecasts.  However, it has accumulated a strong record in the last few years by making fairly accurate election calls in an unusually difficult global political environment.  It forecast that Trump would win with the correct number of electoral votes, that Macron would win the French election, and that Merkel and Abe would both win reelection.  It has forecasted victories for establishment, populist, center, left and right candidates and is party-agnostic.  It uses social media as its sole input, while using polls, betting markets, and traditional political analysis as benchmarks.