SMI Track-Record Making Correct Forecasts in Difficult Times Analyzing social media and/or on-line activity to measure influence and intent is still relatively new. It has been used with success in finance and product releases, but its application to elections was unheard of until 2015. Since that time, a number of out-of-consensus […]
LGBT Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: LGBT Community The LGBT community is more difficult to forecast as there is less data. My impression is that LGBT voters would have been most inclined to vote Democrat before the legalization of same-sex marriage which likely explains Obama’s relatively strong figures with this group. However, […]
African-American Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: African-American Community Clinton will most definitely receive the lion’s share of the African-American vote. But can she actually replicate the success of Obama, the country’s first African-American president, with this demographic group? Because this community has been the most loyal of any major demographic group to […]
Counter Arguments
Election 2016 Intro: Counter Arguments and Potential Weaknesses As a general disclaimer, some weaknesses with the general analysis should be highlighted: 1. Media Bias and Social Desirability Bias – these go hand-in-hand when it comes to national political campaigns so if you disregard an inherent media bias that is weighted against […]