Election 2016 Hidden Trump Supporters might be hiding in plain sight From the Democrat side, anyone who questions polls is a bit off (except if an ‘outlier poll’ shows Trump up, then it is ok to disregard it, so it goes both ways). Even on Fox News, which is traditionally very conservative, many eyes have rolled […]
Landslide Expectations, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Minority Expectations of Victory Opinion leaders in the media and even political analysis firms seem to agree that a Clinton victory is expected. But, this understanding goes well beyond opinion leaders and into the general populace. It is arguable if this is a positive or a […]
African-American Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: African-American Community Clinton will most definitely receive the lion’s share of the African-American vote. But can she actually replicate the success of Obama, the country’s first African-American president, with this demographic group? Because this community has been the most loyal of any major demographic group to […]
Age Cohort Enthusiasm
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Age Cohort Enthusiasm Breakdown Each candidate appears to be leading within distinct age cohorts. Generally, polls in 2016 tend to show younger age groups leaning Democrat and older age groups leaning Republican. Certainly, this trend is not that new considering the strong youth vote was […]
Fundamental Forecasts Needed
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]