Post-Election Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes. Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes. This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]
Final Forecast 2016 Election
Election 2016 Final Forecasts, Trump Victory The day before election-day, our final forecast is for Trump to win the general election by a margin slightly less than Obama’s victory over Romney in 2012, or by about 3 percentage points. This forecast is heavily weighted towards social media, on-line activity, consumption data, interest levels, anonymous polls, and […]
Google Consumer Survey, High Undecideds to help Trump
Election 2016 Extremely High Undecideds benefit Trump One of the most significant wild cards in the 2016 election is the high number of undecideds. Much of the race will be decided by which side they vote for on election-day. This post presents the size of this cohort and speculates on how it can impact the final […]
Social Media Predicts Trump Victory
Election 2016 Social Media Influence Index => Trump Wins The Social Media Influence (“SMI”) Index was created by ZettaCap, a company I founded that analyzes a variety of social media and on-line data for financial investment analysis. It correctly predicted from 2015 that Trump would dominate the Republican nomination process and that Clinton would win the […]
Google Searches and Pres Debates, surge in interest for Trump
Election 2016 Google Searches during Debates, advantage Trump As discussed in different posts and research, on-line activity is an excellent determination of interest level which, in the case of a political election, is a good indicator for voting intention and turnout. In the last three US Presidential Elections the candidate with the more dominant Google […]
Debate Viewership implies Record Turnout
Election 2016 US Debate Viewership points to Record Voter Turnout One of the main determining factors, and one of the least covered variables, for the 2016 US Presidential Election is voter turnout. In other posts, we discussed how search activity and interest levels (measured in polls) point to voter turnout that could approach or break […]
‘Uneducated Whites’, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Whites with no College Degree Many elections have key demographics and messages that define them. For 2016, each major party has targeted a key demographic with specific messages. The Democrats have targeted women with the underlying message that it is important to finally elect the […]
History does not Favor Democrats in 2016
Election 2016 Backdrop to 2016: Democrats are Vulnerable, not Dominant Someone convinced the nation that the Democrats dominate and will continue to dominate politics. Furthermore, Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012 are pointed to as proof. This has been an awesome coup in the sense that the country has digested this […]
Election Forecasts
Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]
Congress Approval Rating, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Republican Shaming: Congress Approval Rating The idea of individuals hiding their true voting intentions when responding in polls seems to have come to the forefront with Trump’s candidacy. In reality, however, similar things have occurred for the Republican Party before Trump even announced his candidacy. […]