Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Trump Shaming: Clinton vs Trump head-to-head In 2016, Trump shaming is real and Clinton has superficially benefited. Her position is seen as being stronger than it actually is due to the fact that many Trump supporters have been closeted and many demographic groups feel social […]
Summary: Identity Politics
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Summary ‘Identity Politics’ appears to have taken firm root in America. I do not like the idea or condone it. Frankly, I think the laser like focus on demographics in America actually weakens the democracy and accentuates other problems. However, for analysis purposes, we cannot ignore […]
Google Search Trends and Politics
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Google Search Trends can Predict Turnout and Election Winner People mostly get their information from search. If they are interested in something they tend to open a browser and search for the topic at hand. Google, by most accounts, controls over 60% of search in […]
Voter Attitudes = Record Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout: Voter Attitudes Data Polls sometimes ask indirect questions to determine which respondents are Likely Voters. These questions often relate to their attitudes regarding the election and voting in general. Examples include: To what extent are you following the election? Is the election interesting? Does it really matter […]
Summary, Forecasting Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Summary => Republicans to Benefit The election of 2016 is considerably different from previous US Presidential Elections by many metrics including those that help to forecast turnout. Furthermore, these metrics considerably point to the Republicans benefiting from the increased turnout. There are two general ways […]
Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary Election analysis concerning the 2016 US Presidential race is truly awful. This series of posts will discuss this topic and of course how to improve upon it. There are many issues and problems with the current US presidential analysis. Highlighting some of […]
Conditions Ripe for Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Overview: Conditions Ripe for Social Desirability Bias Poll bias is alive and well. Different polls should show more or less similar results if there is no bias involved. If polls begin to vary considerably for an apparent inexplicable reason, more research is needed to understand why. […]
Republican Primaries, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Trump Shaming: Republican Primaries The Republican primaries are a great case study for Social Desirability Bias. We have a considerable amount of data from multiple polls in multiple states for multiple candidates. Additionally, this data can be compared to actual results from the primaries. It turns […]