We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls. Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets. We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation. The following excerpt is taken […]
German Election: Final SMI Forecast
German Election Merkel to Win, but FDP and AfD will be biggest outpeformers Using polls as a base scenario, we compare the latest SMI forecasts. The table below summarizes polls, SMI forecasts and the differentials between polls and SMI forecasts. Table 1: German Election: Social Media Influence (SMI) Forecasts vs […]
German Election: SMI points to Right-Leaning Parties
German Election Election day, September 24th, is rapidly approaching. The polls and betting markets are fairly stable and clearly indicate that Merkel will win her fourth term. Social Media Influence (SMI) indicates this will likely be the case, but SMI ratings have been shifting unexpectedly – hence the reason for this update. Unlike in US, […]
German Election: FDP gaining attention
German Election Update Last month’s post on the German Election showed that Social Media Influence (SMI) was pointing to the FDP outperforming their rather meager poll and betting market figures. The implication was that Germany would shift to the right with FDP likely entering into a ruling coalition with Merkel’s CDU/CSU. At the time of […]
SMI Outperforms Polls in French Election
French Presidential Election SMI has lowest Forecasting Error Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen with 66.1% versus 33.9% of the popular vote, respectively. Social Media Influence (SMI) was the most accurate known forecasting method with a forecasting error of 2.7% in comparison to an average forecasting error of 4.1% for […]
SMI: South Korean Presidential Forecast
South Korean Presidential Election Late Surge for Sim Sang-jung but Moon Jae-in to Win Using Social Media Influence (SMI) to forecast political races is new and innovative. It was used successfully to make early forecasts in the 2016 US Presidential Election, where it forecasted an eventual Trump victory, and in the 2017 French […]
France: Second Round SMI Forecast
French Election Second Round Analysis Social Media Influence (SMI) is currently forecasting a 61% Macron and 39% Le Pen split for the second round of voting. The average of eight polls (including OpinionWay, Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Ipsos, and Harris) conducted from April 23rd (day of first round voting) to present show a split of 62% Macron […]
SMI Revised Forecasts for French Election
French Election First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already. For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election. Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]
French Election: SMI Shows Melenchon Strength
French Presidential Election Melenchon – Dark Horse Candidate The first round of voting will take place within two weeks, on April 23rd. Much of the campaign has developed along the lines that we laid out in our early December SMI forecast. However, there have recently been some significant shifts which could shake things up going […]
SMI Update French Election: Macron becomes Front Runner
2017 French Presidential Election SMI-leader Macron takes the Betting Market lead Today is the first day that Emmanuel Macron has taken the lead in the betting markets for the 2017 French Presidential Election. This highly unlikely scenario was forecast using the Social Media Influence (SMI) index in early December, which stated that the then-third place […]