Kevin Coogan

  • About
  • Blog
  • Election 2016 Analysis
  • Election Forecasts — OCT
  • Election Forecasts — NOV
  • Presentations and Research
  • Videos
  • zettacap
  • 
  • 
  • 
wordpress stat

Copyright © 2026 · Sixteen Nine Pro Theme on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in

SMI Outperforms Polls in French Election

May 8, 2017 by Kevin Coogan

French Presidential Election           SMI has lowest Forecasting Error Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen with 66.1% versus 33.9% of the popular vote, respectively.  Social Media Influence (SMI) was the most accurate known forecasting method with a forecasting error of 2.7% in comparison to an average forecasting error of 4.1% for […]

Filed Under: 21st Century Data, Big Data, Forecasts, French Election, Social Desirability Bias, Social Media Influence Tagged With: forecasting, forecasting error, Le Pen, Macron, polls, social media influence

Featured Posts

Who Won the First Democratic Debate (Night 2)?

Who Won the First Democratic Debate (Night 1)?

Michelle Obama as Reluctant Savior

2020 Democrats: Low Probability Candidates and a Reluctant Savior

Overview 2020 Democratic Race using SMI_January 2019

SMI of 2020 Democrats / ST Observations

US Midterms — SMI Trends

US Midterms — Summary of Forecasts

US Midterms — Republicans take a late lead

Bolsonaro to Win Brazil’s Presidency