Japan Election LDP Pulls Further Ahead Prime Minister Abe’s ruling LDP has improved upon an already strong Social Media Influence (SMI) position. It looks increasingly unlikely that either of the two main new national parties, Party of Hope and Constitutional Democratic Party, will be able to generate enough votes to block Abe from securing the […]
German Election: SMI Standout Candidates
German Election There are two standout candidates in terms of SMI relative to poll figures in the German 2017 Election – Christian Lindner (FDP) and Alice Weidel (AfD). The extent to which the interest in these candidates can translate into votes will determine much of the balance in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house. US and […]
German Election Update, CDU advances, FDP strong
German Election Update Stay the Course The German Election is in less than two months. Traditional forecasts, such as polls and betting markets, have been fairly stable over the last month and continue to point to the CDU/CSU winning the election and the SPD losing ground in comparison to its current position. Social Media Influence […]
Final Forecast French Presidential Election
2017 French Election Macron Victory, with slight outperformance On the eve of the second round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election, the SMI continues to point to Emmanuel Macron as the winner. The consensus call is that Macron will in fact win tomorrow. As the SMI forecast is in-line […]
SMI: South Korean Presidential Forecast
South Korean Presidential Election Late Surge for Sim Sang-jung but Moon Jae-in to Win Using Social Media Influence (SMI) to forecast political races is new and innovative. It was used successfully to make early forecasts in the 2016 US Presidential Election, where it forecasted an eventual Trump victory, and in the 2017 French […]
Accurate Election Forecast
Post-Election Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes. Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes. This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]
Final Forecast 2016 Election
Election 2016 Final Forecasts, Trump Victory The day before election-day, our final forecast is for Trump to win the general election by a margin slightly less than Obama’s victory over Romney in 2012, or by about 3 percentage points. This forecast is heavily weighted towards social media, on-line activity, consumption data, interest levels, anonymous polls, and […]