Kevin Coogan

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France: Second Round SMI Forecast

April 26, 2017 by Kevin Coogan

French Election           Second Round Analysis Social Media Influence (SMI) is currently forecasting a 61% Macron and 39% Le Pen split for the second round of voting. The average of eight polls (including OpinionWay, Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Ipsos, and Harris) conducted from April 23rd (day of first round voting) to present show a split of 62% Macron […]

Filed Under: Big Data, Forecasts, French Election, Polls Tagged With: forecasting, French Election, Le Pen, Macron, SMI, social media influence

SMI Revised Forecasts for French Election

April 22, 2017 by Kevin Coogan

French Election                  First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already.  For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election.  Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]

Filed Under: Big Data, Election, Forecasts, French Election, Polls, Social Desirability Bias, Social Desirability Bias, Social Media Analysis Tagged With: Fillon, forecasting, French Election, Le Pen, Macron, Melenchon, polls, SMI, social media influence

French Election: SMI Shows Melenchon Strength

April 12, 2017 by Kevin Coogan

French Presidential Election                        Melenchon – Dark Horse Candidate The first round of voting will take place within two weeks, on April 23rd.  Much of the campaign has developed along the lines that we laid out in our early December SMI forecast.  However, there have recently been some significant shifts which could shake things up going […]

Filed Under: Big Data, Election, Forecasts, French Election, Social Media Analysis Tagged With: betting markets, Fillon, forecasting, French Election, Le Pen, Macron, Melenchon, SMI, social media influence

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