Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Whites with no College Degree Many elections have key demographics and messages that define them. For 2016, each major party has targeted a key demographic with specific messages. The Democrats have targeted women with the underlying message that it is important to finally elect the […]
Election Forecasts
Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]
Female Vote, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Female Vote Much of the 2016 election will be determined by the extent to which gender plays a significant role or not in voter turnout and party preference. As we will see, women tend to vote Democrat and men tend to vote Republican. A significant change […]
Youth Vote, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Youth Vote The youth vote has been a consistent voting block for the Democrats. Especially in the last two presidential elections, the youth vote clearly helped the Democrats to victory. As part of the ‘Coalition’ that elected Obama, many expect the youth vote to support Clinton […]
LGBT Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: LGBT Community The LGBT community is more difficult to forecast as there is less data. My impression is that LGBT voters would have been most inclined to vote Democrat before the legalization of same-sex marriage which likely explains Obama’s relatively strong figures with this group. However, […]
African-American Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: African-American Community Clinton will most definitely receive the lion’s share of the African-American vote. But can she actually replicate the success of Obama, the country’s first African-American president, with this demographic group? Because this community has been the most loyal of any major demographic group to […]
Summary: Identity Politics
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Summary ‘Identity Politics’ appears to have taken firm root in America. I do not like the idea or condone it. Frankly, I think the laser like focus on demographics in America actually weakens the democracy and accentuates other problems. However, for analysis purposes, we cannot ignore […]