Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Feedback Dynamics: Media’s Influence The existence of Social Desirability Bias is concrete. People tend to change answers on certain questions if they believe that their actual answer might not be socially acceptable. What is not as concrete is the dynamic that makes people feel social […]
Fundamental Forecasts Needed
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]
Media’s Voting Record
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Media Bias: Media’s Voting Record As explained elsewhere, the national media play a central role in setting the tone for political discourse. Certainly, it is the transference mechanism that can most effectively show the general public which parties, candidates, and policies should be considered socially acceptable. […]
Media Bias, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Overview: Is the Media really Biased? In order for people to feel that an answer in a survey or poll is not socially acceptable, there needs to be a transference mechanism from which they ‘learn’ the standard for socially acceptable responses. For national political campaigns, the […]
Counter Arguments
Election 2016 Intro: Counter Arguments and Potential Weaknesses As a general disclaimer, some weaknesses with the general analysis should be highlighted: 1. Media Bias and Social Desirability Bias – these go hand-in-hand when it comes to national political campaigns so if you disregard an inherent media bias that is weighted against […]