Kevin Coogan

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Accurate Election Forecast

November 9, 2016 by Kevin Coogan

Post-Election          Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes.  Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes.  This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]

Filed Under: Election, Enthusiasm to Vote, Forecasts, Fundamental Forecasting, Google Search Trends, Google Search Trends, Identity Politics, Obama Coalition, Polls, Social Desirability Bias, Social Desirability Bias, Social Media Analysis, Voter Turnout, Wikipedia Page Views Tagged With: election 2016, Enthusiasm, forecasts, Google Search Trends, Obama Coalition, Social Desirability Bias, social media analysis, turnout

Fundamental Forecasts Needed

October 19, 2016 by Kevin Coogan

Election 2016          Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]

Filed Under: Biased Media, Election, Fundamental Forecasting, Identity Politics, Obama Coalition, Transparency Tagged With: African-American Turnout, Female Turnout, Hispanic Turnout, Immigration, Media Bias, Obama Coalition, Youth Vote

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