2017 French Presidential Election SMI points towards Macron Judging from the Social Media Influence (SMI) index, Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon will place first and second, respectively, in the first round of voting which will take place on April 23, 2017 qualifying them to pass on to the second round or head-to-head run-off on May […]
Social Media Predicts Trump Victory
Election 2016 Social Media Influence Index => Trump Wins The Social Media Influence (“SMI”) Index was created by ZettaCap, a company I founded that analyzes a variety of social media and on-line data for financial investment analysis. It correctly predicted from 2015 that Trump would dominate the Republican nomination process and that Clinton would win the […]
‘Extremely Likely to Vote’ uncovers Hidden-Trump-Supporter
Election 2016 Hidden Trump Supporters might be hiding in plain sight From the Democrat side, anyone who questions polls is a bit off (except if an ‘outlier poll’ shows Trump up, then it is ok to disregard it, so it goes both ways). Even on Fox News, which is traditionally very conservative, many eyes have rolled […]
Live vs Anonymous Polls, Bias Growing near Election
Election 2016 Polling / Is Clinton a shoe-in? Clinton Landslide? With about three weeks to go to the general election (at the time of writing not public publishing), most have already declared Clinton the winner. The average of FiveThirtyEight, PredictWise, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, New York Times, and Huffington Post puts the probability of a […]
‘Uneducated Whites’, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Whites with no College Degree Many elections have key demographics and messages that define them. For 2016, each major party has targeted a key demographic with specific messages. The Democrats have targeted women with the underlying message that it is important to finally elect the […]
Problems with Polls
Election 2016 Problems with Current Election Analysis: Polls, What are They Good For? Before looking closer at polls and polling, we should review some of their basics to highlight how something that is so often conducted by academics could go so wrong. Polls provide very little transparency in how they actually determine the results. […]