(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Brazil General Election 2018 In July 2017, Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasted that the then-outlier, Jair Bolsonaro, would end up winning Brazil’s presidential election. Assuming a Bolsonaro victory in the […]
Euro Forecast and Italian Election
Accurate Forecasts of Italian Election and Euro Prior to Italy’s General Election in March 2018, we made an out-of-consensus forecast that Italy’s smaller right-leaning parties would outperform polls, upsetting the political order in Italy and Europe. We predicted that the Euro’s appreciation would essentially stop due to the unexpected shift in Italian politics. The election forecast […]
SMI forecasts Italian Election, Euro to pause
We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls. Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets. We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation. The following excerpt is taken […]
SMI: Moore(R) to Win AL Senate Race
Alabama Senate Race A special election will be held in Alabama to fill the vacant seat on December 12, 2017. Alabama is seen as a key election as it will serve as a litmus test for the broader 2018 Senate races. If a traditionally Republican state can elect a Democratic senator, the Senate would be seen […]
SMI: NJ and VA Gubernatorial Elections
US Gubernatorial Elections Virginia and New Jersey will elect their governors on November 7, 2017. There appears to be a rather broad consensus that the Democratic candidate (Murphy) will win in New Jersey. In Virginia, however, the race seems too close to call between Republican (Gillespie) and Democratic (Northam) candidates when using traditional data. Recent […]
Japan Election: SMI shows further Abe Strength
Japan Election LDP Pulls Further Ahead Prime Minister Abe’s ruling LDP has improved upon an already strong Social Media Influence (SMI) position. It looks increasingly unlikely that either of the two main new national parties, Party of Hope and Constitutional Democratic Party, will be able to generate enough votes to block Abe from securing the […]
SMI: Japan’s Snap Election
Japan’s General Election LDP Re-Election Likely There is very little indication that Abe’s political rivals are gaining enough traction on social media relative to his own to seriously challenge him. In fact, SMI points to the LDP and Abe handily winning re-election. There is still time for a shift but given the circumstances, explained later, […]
German Election: Final SMI Forecast
German Election Merkel to Win, but FDP and AfD will be biggest outpeformers Using polls as a base scenario, we compare the latest SMI forecasts. The table below summarizes polls, SMI forecasts and the differentials between polls and SMI forecasts. Table 1: German Election: Social Media Influence (SMI) Forecasts vs […]
German Election: SMI Standout Candidates
German Election There are two standout candidates in terms of SMI relative to poll figures in the German 2017 Election – Christian Lindner (FDP) and Alice Weidel (AfD). The extent to which the interest in these candidates can translate into votes will determine much of the balance in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house. US and […]
German Election: SMI points to Right-Leaning Parties
German Election Election day, September 24th, is rapidly approaching. The polls and betting markets are fairly stable and clearly indicate that Merkel will win her fourth term. Social Media Influence (SMI) indicates this will likely be the case, but SMI ratings have been shifting unexpectedly – hence the reason for this update. Unlike in US, […]