In an election filled with twists and turns, Social Media Influence (SMI) seems to have one last final surprise left in store. A late surge by Ciro Gomes in SMI, which has not been detected by any traditional metric, will likely result in Gomes significantly outperforming polls tomorrow. Though unlikely he can make up the […]
Bolsonaro leads Brazil going into Election
The first round of voting occurs on October 7th, this Sunday. Traditional metrics such as polls and betting markets have been all over the place over the last few months. A variety of candidates have been pushed into front-runner status by these traditional metrics — Lula, Haddad, and Alckmin occupied consensus leadership at one point. […]
Election Forecasts
Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]