(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Brazil General Election 2018 In July 2017, Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasted that the then-outlier, Jair Bolsonaro, would end up winning Brazil’s presidential election. Assuming a Bolsonaro victory in the […]
SMI: Bolsonaro to win Brazilian Election
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Summary Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and […]
SMI forecasts Italian Election, Euro to pause
We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls. Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets. We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation. The following excerpt is taken […]
SMI: Japan’s Snap Election
Japan’s General Election LDP Re-Election Likely There is very little indication that Abe’s political rivals are gaining enough traction on social media relative to his own to seriously challenge him. In fact, SMI points to the LDP and Abe handily winning re-election. There is still time for a shift but given the circumstances, explained later, […]
German Election: FDP gaining attention
German Election Update Last month’s post on the German Election showed that Social Media Influence (SMI) was pointing to the FDP outperforming their rather meager poll and betting market figures. The implication was that Germany would shift to the right with FDP likely entering into a ruling coalition with Merkel’s CDU/CSU. At the time of […]
German Elections: FDP to Outperform
Social Media Influence Establishment Parties to lose ground to FDP Germany holds its next general federal election on September 24, 2017, which will elect members of the Bundestag, or Germany’s lower house. As a single party normally does not get a majority, post-election coalition talks are held to form a coalition […]
Final Forecast French Presidential Election
2017 French Election Macron Victory, with slight outperformance On the eve of the second round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election, the SMI continues to point to Emmanuel Macron as the winner. The consensus call is that Macron will in fact win tomorrow. As the SMI forecast is in-line […]
Review of French Election SMI Forecasts vs Actual
French Election First Round Results versus SMI Forecasts Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts for the first round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election compares well with actual results. Taking the main SMI forecasts that ended up being correct: Macron will win the most votes in the first round. SMI forecasted that Macron would […]
SMI Forecast: D66 to Win Dutch Election
2017 Dutch Election ‘Unexpected’ Outperformance by Left-Leaning Parties The Netherlands holds its next general election on March 15, 2017, or one week from today. Most expect parties on the right of the political spectrum to do well – that is they are expected to dominate according to pundits, polls and betting markets. […]
Dutch Election: SMI points to D66
Dutch Elections SMI points to D66 Surge The Netherlands will hold its general election on March 15, 2017, a month from today. As it occurs prior to the French (April/May) and German (September) elections, it will help to provide an indication of the direction that Europe will take going forward. Especially, in the relatively volatile […]