Kevin Coogan

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Youth Vote, Election 2016

October 19, 2016 by Kevin Coogan

Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Youth Vote The youth vote has been a consistent voting block for the Democrats.  Especially in the last two presidential elections, the youth vote clearly helped the Democrats to victory.  As part of the ‘Coalition’ that elected Obama, many expect the youth vote to support Clinton […]

Filed Under: Election, Identity Politics Tagged With: Identity Politics, voter turnout, Youth Vote

Age Cohort Enthusiasm

October 19, 2016 by Kevin Coogan

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Age Cohort Enthusiasm Breakdown Each candidate appears to be leading within distinct age cohorts.  Generally, polls in 2016 tend to show younger age groups leaning Democrat and older age groups leaning Republican.  Certainly, this trend is not that new considering the strong youth vote was […]

Filed Under: Election, Enthusiasm to Vote, Identity Politics, Obama Coalition, Voter Turnout Tagged With: African-American Turnout, Female Turnout, voter turnout, Youth Vote

Fundamental Forecasts Needed

October 19, 2016 by Kevin Coogan

Election 2016          Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]

Filed Under: Biased Media, Election, Fundamental Forecasting, Identity Politics, Obama Coalition, Transparency Tagged With: African-American Turnout, Female Turnout, Hispanic Turnout, Immigration, Media Bias, Obama Coalition, Youth Vote

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